May you live in interesting times, Part 3

In the latest polling for the presidential elections in 2028, Vice President Sara Duterte across the board is the undisputed survey leader. Is that why she is being impeached?

Nevertheless, the motives behind her impeachment are irrelevant for this piece. I want to indulge in analyzing various scenarios heading into the 2028 presidential elections. 

The first scenario is Sara Duterte’s impeachment, for some reason, halts dead on its tracks. 

Would a fresh round of impeachment complaints be endorsed by the requisite number of congressmen? That depends on Malacañang’s willingness to mobilize pork barrel money to coax legislators into signing it. No congressman in their right mind will turn their backs on pork barrel.

The way politics works in the country, congressmen are never held accountable for their actions in the House of Representatives per se. Instead, constituents judge their performance using notions of mejoras (“improvements”), or their contribution to material improvements in their district, city or province. Thus, congressmen are incentivized to sign impeachment complaints in exchange for pork barrel (in the context of mejoras).

However, the senate is a different discussion. The midterm elections are often a critical turning point in the configuration of the country’s national political landscape as would-be contenders in the next presidential elections begin to jockey for position. If Sara is still standing and depending on her performance in credible surveys, some senators could move to forge an understanding or alliance with the Dutertes for 2028 effectively stalling her impeachment for good.

If Sara emerges unscathed from the impeachment process and wins in 2028, the fallout for the Romualdez-Marcos gang and their most vociferous lieutenants, given the former’s notoriety as Punisher 2.0 (Rodrigo is the original Punisher), would be nothing less than spectacular.

Another set of scenarios, on the other hand, begin with the successful impeachment of Sara Duterte. That would mean that the Dutertes are left without a viable bet in 2028 as Congressman Paolo Duterte appears to be nothing more than a local politician, and younger brother and Davao City Mayor Sebastian needs some seasoning. Their father Rodrigo had to come out of retirement to battle Karlo Nograles —instead of Sebastian— for the Davao City mayoralty race, a clear indictment of the younger Duterte’s current readiness for a robust political challenge. 

Yet, there are also scenarios where the Dutertes, eliminated from contention in 2028, could become game-changing kingmakers, particularly in a fierce race involving multiple (strong) contenders in need of a boost. Given the current poor showing of Speaker Martin Romualdez and Senator Imee Marcos in the surveys for 2028, Romualdez and President Bongbong Marcos could find themselves in a situation similar to that of former presidents Noynoy Aquino and Gloria Macapagal Arroyo in 2016 and 2010 respectively. 

After bowing out of the presidency, Arroyo found herself in custody at the Veterans Memorial Medical Center until Aquino stepped down from office. Aquino, on the other hand, avoided a similar fate thanks to his rapidly deteriorating health. Marites whispers say that Senator Leila de Lima was detained for 6 years, 8 months and 21 days as Aquino’s proxy.

If a Duterte-backed candidate lands in Malacañang in 2028, Bongbong and Martin are expected to have forthcoming himas rehas experiences.

Is there a scenario, at least, where Sara is impeached and the Dutertes are marginalized in the 2028 presidential elections? This is highly unlikely. The Dutertes figure to remain a formidable political force even if Sara is found guilty by the senate. I have seen reels in social media where spontaneous Duterte chants engulfed one of the 2025 Sinulog-related events in Cebu City. Observers unanimously considered the January 13, 2025 Iglesia Ni Cristo-sponsored National Rally for Peace that drew millions of attendees nationwide as being a show of support for Sara Duterte. 

The wisest path, given the circumstances, for the Romualdez-Marcos gang is to back a strong contender such as consensus survey second placer Senator Raffy Tulfo in 2028. Nevertheless, as the Marcoses, for no visible justification, unceremoniously ended their alliance with the Dutertes, with presidential son and Ilocos Norte Congressman Sandro Marcos being the first signatory in the endorsement of Sara Duterte’s impeachment, Tulfo or any other would-be allies in 2028 could also preemptively do the same to them.

In another non-Romualdez-Marcos/non-Duterte presidency scenario in 2028, where the Romualdez-Marcos gang are outside the kulambo with the hypothetical winner, and given their downward spiraling popularity, the Romualdezes and Marcoses could be soft targets for the next administration in the same fashion Sara Duterte (proxy for her father, Rodrigo) is now for Bongbong Marcos, then-Senator de Lima (proxy for Noynoy Aquino) was for Duterte in 2016, and Arroyo was for Aquino in 2010.

Rodrigo’s and Sara’s popularity are still quite palpable but the latter was still impeached. If that was quite easily done against a popular politician, imagine how easy it would be for the next hypothetical non-Romualdez-Marcos/non-Duterte allied president to come after Bongbong and Martin Romualdez to satisfy the people’s lust for punishment and simultaneously court the sizable Duterte political base with that singular move. 

Romualdez is resolutely unpalatable to Filipino voters. Bongbong Marcos’s net satisfaction rating nosedived by 13 percentage points to net +19 percent according to pollster Social Weather Stations’ December 2024 survey. Moreover, the recent move of prominent educational institutions to cancel classes to celebrate the 39th EDSA People Power anniversary to protest Marcos’s declaration of February 25, 2025 a “working holiday” is a pointed reminder that many are still rabidly anti-Marcos at their core. 

I am personally bewildered by the decision of the Romualdez-Marcos gang to acrimoniously cut off their alliance with the Dutertes, culminating in this Sara Duterte impeachment. Sara notoriously defied her father in order to preserve her tandem with Bongbong Marcos during the 2022 elections. Sara’s impeachment does not present itself with any clear long-term gains for them. Even the expected short-term gains come only at a Pyrrhic price. 

The Romualdez-Marcos gang are due for a rude awakening courtesy of their traditional and newfound enemies after Bongbong bows out of office in 2028.

February 28, 2025