Good Game, Well Played, Sara (and Rodrigo) Duterte

I came across the term “amigo warfare” from historian Reynaldo Ileto’s book Knowledge and Pacification, which touched on many perplexing aspects of the historiography of the American conquest of the Philippines, including how the poblacion (i.e., cities/towns/municipalities) navigated the U.S. military occupation vis-a-vis the looming presence of Filipino guerrillas, particularly in the southern Tagalog region. The central figure in poblacion politics was the municipal mayor who had the difficult task of maintaining a balancing act between serving the townspeople and keeping the American military and Filipino guerrillas at bay. 

In my previous pieces on Amigo Warfare, I might have given the impression that the concept revolves around deception. It clearly does not. 

The town mayor during the turn of the 20th century was motivated primarily by the principle of serving the people, making sure that they are protected from the wrath of both the American military and the Filipino guerrillas in the hills and mountains nearby. Thus, their attitude towards both the Americans and Filipino guerrillas was predicated on shielding the people from the dire consequences of further military action, not just in terms of conflict-related casualties but also in terms of economic disruption, public health catastrophes such as epidemics, etc., and just the overall social cost of war.

It was a balancing act to end all balancing acts.

It is from this perspective that I look at the actions of Vice President Sara Duterte —a former city mayor herself— particularly in light of her recent endorsement of Senator Imee Marcos (and Congresswoman Camille Villar). 

Focusing on Imee Marcos for brevity, there was a huge drop in her numbers according to the Pulse Asia survey for the 2025 elections. From a high of 46.3% voter preference in the January 2025 survey of Pulse Asia, Imee Marcos is down to 27.6% in the latest March 2025 survey of the same firm. That constitutes a disastrous fall of 18.7 percentage points from January to March 2025, putting her in a crowded position for the last couple of places in the senatorial race’s winners’ circle with some 8 to 10 formidable rivals, including Villar.

Imee Marcos’s reason for wanting a campaign video with Sara is justified because according to the most recent Pulse Asia survey, the vice president remains the most trusted high government official in the country, the only one whose trust and approval numbers improved from the previous survey. By contrast, President Bongbong Marcos, Imee’s younger brother, has seen his NET trust numbers plummet to NEGATIVE 28 percent (25% trust minus 53% distrust). Sara’s NET numbers are at a very robust POSITIVE 43 percent (59% trust minus 16% distrust). The only one to have worse numbers than Bongbong is his cousin Speaker Martin Romualdez whose NET numbers are an embarrassing NEGATIVE 40 percent (14% trust minus 54% distrust). In fact, more than half of Filipinos distrust Bongbong (53%) and Romualdez (54%).

It is quite rational for Imee to seek the endorsement of Sara under the circumstances. But why would Sara do it? Has she forgotten and/or forgiven the Marcoses for what happened to her father, former President Rodrigo Duterte, who she claimed was kidnapped to The Hague under the custody of the International Criminal Court (ICC)? Why did she risk earning the ire of her supporters for the sake of Imee?

 

Instead of answering those questions, I offer my observations.

It remains doubtful whether Sara’s endorsement of Imee and Camille will carry much weight among Duterte supporters as the vice president confirmed that her father Rodrigo, the former president, did not endorse Marcos and Villar from detention in The Hague. Nevertheless, Sara’s endorsement of Imee and Camille shook the already-frail foundations of the administration-backed Alyansa para sa Bagong Pilipinas. Recently, Palace Press Officer Claire Castro blasted Senator Cynthia Villar, Camille’s mother, as author of the Rice Tariffication Law, for rising rice prices in the country. It seemed to me a thinly-veiled retaliation for Camille’s defection to the Duterte side. Interestingly enough though, I have not seen a Malacanang-initiated counter-attack against Imee. Blood is definitely thicker.

Feisty blogger Maricar Serrano’s claim that Imee’s (duplicitous?) friendly relations with Sara is part of her secret role as the Marcoses’ “political salbabida” should the Dutertes claw back to power in the future has certainly become more and more plausible as the May 2025 elections draws near.

Shockingly (or probably not), prominent pro-administration mouthpiece and pathological mental gymnast Antonio Contreras has recently called for the inclusion of (former?) harsh Marcos critics and “Pink” senatorial contenders Bam Aquino and Kiko Pangilinan as replacements for the renegade candidates in the (unofficial) Alyansa slate for the May 2025 elections. And Filipinos thought they have already seen everything.

A perfect balancing act —not deception— is the central theme of amigo warfare. 

Sara’s endorsement of Imee (and Camille) represents a very precarious balancing act. In the short term, it may disappoint pro-Duterte supporters. However, Serrano forcefully pointed out, the endorsement serves as a proverbial monkey wrench on the facade of Philippine politics. Pro-administration alliances are now discombobulated. Not only did Imee and Camille seek the endorsement of opposition leader Sara Duterte, other Alyansa members such as reelectionist Senator Francis Tolentino also sought the endorsement of opposition Partido Demokratiko Pilipino-Lakas ng Bayan (PDP-Laban) president Senator Robin Padilla. To complete the “kain-suka” (literally, eat your own vomit) move, Alyansa bloggers are now also campaigning for Pink candidates Bam Aquino and Kiko Pangilinan.

Ultimately, when the pro-Duterte voters get over their initial shock, they will realize that they are not obligated to vote for Imee Marcos (and/or Camille Villar) in the May 2025 elections as Sara’s endorsement was balanced out by Rodrigo’s publicized —by Sara no less— contradictory non-endorsement. Likewise, the Dutertes in one fell swoop have essentially discredited the Alyansa and the “Pinks” as the political farce that they are.

Sara’s and Rodrigo’s “gangster moves” reflect the popular Filipino adage during elections: “kunin ang pera, huwag iboto ang vote-buyer”.

As the kids say these days: good game, well played, Rodrigo and Sara Duterte. 

April 25, 2025